Eric Boggs
For the first time since late in the 2023 season, Ohio State could enter a game as an underdog when it travels to Austin to face Texas on Sept. 12, 2026. Even with the 2025 season barely in the rearview mirror, sportsbooks have already begun shaping expectations for next fall, and the Buckeyes have opened as 2.5-point underdogs against the Longhorns at FanDuel. If that line holds, it would mark Ohio State’s first time being listed as an underdog since the 2023 matchup against Michigan.
From an Ohio State perspective, that number says more about the road environment and the opponent than any lack of confidence in the Buckeyes. Ryan Day’s program has lost elite talent to the NFL and transfer portal, but it has also aggressively reloaded. Ohio State supplemented its roster with 17 transfer additions and a 28-player recruiting class while retaining cornerstone pieces such as Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith. The expectation in Columbus remains unchanged: compete for championships.
Texas is in a similar position, returning high-profile stars like Arch Manning and Colin Simmons while adding 18 transfers and a 22-player recruiting class. The Longhorns have also been dominant at home, winning eight straight games in Austin, with their last loss there coming against Georgia in October of 2024. That context helps explain why oddsmakers give Texas a slight edge, even though Ohio State won last season’s meeting 14–7 in Columbus and holds a 3–2 all-time series advantage after winning each of the last two matchups.
The early line is just one data point in what is shaping up to be one of the most demanding schedules in the country. Consensus national championship odds from DraftKings and FanDuel list Ohio State at +700 to win it all, tied with Texas and Indiana, while Oregon sits close behind at +925. Notre Dame is the only team with shorter odds than the Buckeyes and Longhorns entering the preseason. Add USC and Michigan to the mix, and Ohio State’s regular-season slate is packed with teams that sportsbooks and analysts view as legitimate title threats.
That view is reinforced by early national rankings. On3’s composite of nine preseason polls has Ohio State ranked No. 1 nationally and slated to face No. 2 Indiana, No. 3 Texas, No. 5 Oregon, No. 14 Michigan, No. 15 USC, and No. 21 Iowa in 2026, with four of those games coming away from Ohio Stadium. It is the kind of schedule that leaves little margin for error but offers enormous upside for a team built to handle pressure.
The magnitude of these matchups hasn’t gone unnoticed around the conference either. Of the 81 Big Ten games next season, The Athletic’s Scott Dochterman ranked four Ohio State games as the top four in the league: at Indiana, versus Oregon, versus Michigan, and at USC. That level of national attention underscores just how central Ohio State is to the Big Ten and playoff conversation.
From a Buckeye fan’s point of view, opening as an underdog in Austin is less an insult and more a reminder of the stage Ohio State will be playing on all season. If the odds are even close to right, this team will be far more battle-tested heading into the College Football Playoff than it was a year ago. And if history is any indication, Ohio State has rarely shied away from proving sportsbooks wrong when the lights are the brightest.
