Chris Wilds
Most of us are familiar with the term “trap game.” A trap game in college football refers to a matchup where a favored team may be at risk of losing to an opponent that is less formidable. It typically occurs when the favorite is coming off a big win, for instance a dominant conference road win like we saw in East Lansing and is looking ahead to a more significant opponent in the following week, like our prime-time matchup versus the Oregon Ducks next weekend. And while Ohio State has dominated Iowa at The Shoe in recent history, there could be some reason to temper our confidence with concern.
The matchup versus the Iowa Hawkeyes this Saturday in Columbus has the makings of a trap game for the Buckeyes. Iowa is a tough team with a physical style of play. They enter Saturday with a bruising running game led by the nation’s second leading rusher in Kaleb Johnson. They have an experience quarterback in former Michigan standout Cade McNamara who was responsible for giving the Wolverines their first victory over the Buckeyes and first Big Ten championship of the Harbaugh era. While they are not exactly an offensive juggernaut, the Hawkeyes are solid defensively and boast the fourth best rushing defense in the country.
It is unlikely that Iowa will win this game. Ohio State comes in as the number three ranked team in the nation and looking the part. They have the fifth best offense in college football averaging 534.8 yards per game. The Buckeyes rank thirteenth in passing offense with 307.8 yards per game, and fourteenth in rushing at 227 yards per game. But they are fifth in redzone offense, scoring touchdowns on 15 of 16 attempts, and fourth in scoring averaging 48.8 points per game. Ohio State also has the second-best defense in the nation allowing just 196.5 yards per game and only 3.39 yards per play. They are in the top five in both running and scoring defense and rank seventh versus the pass. Everything here points to a Buckeye victory.
This game is going to come down to matchups. I have no doubt Ohio State is the more talented team, but can Ohio State protect the ball versus this very opportunistic Iowa defense and can Iowa score on this stingy Ohio State defense? This comes down to Iowa’s prolific run game versus Ohio State’s dominant run defense. If the Buckeye defense starts slow (as they have the past few weeks) and Iowa can score a few touchdowns early, The Buckeyes could be in for a game. Iowa will grind, run the clock, and if this is a close game, it could be an advantage Iowa. If Will Howard makes a mistake, like last week where he had a fumble (which the Buckeyes did recover) or another bad interception, Iowa will capitalize. Ohio State must stay fully focused, or they could be caught off guard. Additionally, if Ohio State is looking ahead to the matchup in Eugene, Oregon the following week it could increase the chances of an upset.
However, the Buckeyes’ talent and depth usually help them overcome these challenges. It will be important for them to stay disciplined and not underestimate Iowa. Iowa is not a team built to come from behind, if Ohio State strikes first with a few scores, Iowa is in trouble. If the Buckeyes go out, continue the balance and productivity we have seen offensively throughout the young season and start fast on defense preventing Iowa from scoring early, they should be able to win this matchup Saturday without much difficulty.
