Eric Boggs
Penn State is gearing up for a pivotal season in 2024 with high expectations under head coach James Franklin. Despite consistent 10-win seasons, the Nittany Lions have yet to break through to the College Football Playoff, often falling short against rivals Ohio State and Michigan. This season, the pressure is on Franklin to elevate the program, especially with a new-look Big Ten and a 12-team playoff field on the horizon. The key question for Penn State is whether they can finally overcome their biggest obstacles and secure a spot in the postseason.
Strengths: Defensive Dominance
Penn State’s defense, particularly the defensive line, stands out as the team’s biggest strength heading into the season. Despite losing two NFL-caliber edge rushers, the defensive line remains the most talented and deep unit on the team. This group will be crucial in determining Penn State’s success, with the safety unit also being a standout. The defense will likely be the backbone of the team, giving them a fighting chance in tough matchups.
On defense, the transition of Abdul Carter from linebacker to defensive end is a move that has drawn considerable attention. Carter, known for his speed and ability to pressure the quarterback, is expected to make a significant impact in his new role, drawing comparisons to former Penn State standout Micah Parsons. With a strong defensive front, Penn State has the pieces in place to make a run at the College Football Playoff, but the pressure is on Franklin and his staff to deliver results this season.
Weaknesses: Uncertainty at Wide Receiver
On the flip side, the wide receiver position is a significant concern. Last season, the production from this group was underwhelming, and the situation hasn’t improved with key losses. The team struggled to establish a clear hierarchy among the receivers, and this needs to be resolved quickly, especially with the challenges posed by the new-look Big Ten. Without a reliable number two and three receiver, Penn State could struggle to keep up offensively.
Key to Success: Drew Aller’s Development
A major storyline heading into the season is the development of quarterback Drew Aller. After showing flashes of brilliance and moments of inexperience last year, Aller enters his second season as the starter with significant expectations. Penn State has brought in offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, who impressed at Kansas, to help Aller reach his potential. How Kotelnicki’s play-calling philosophy meshes with Aller’s strengths will be critical to the Nittany Lions’ success.
Schedule Breakdown: Key Games and Projections
Penn State’s schedule is packed with intrigue, starting with an away game against West Virginia. This opener will be a litmus test, revealing whether the team is ready to compete at the highest level. If Penn State dominates, it could signal a strong season ahead. However, a dogfight could raise early doubts.
The schedule lightens up with games against Bowling Green, Kent State, and a bye week, but the real challenges lie in Big Ten play. Illinois, while solid, isn’t expected to derail Penn State, but the real tests come later. UCLA, in its first season under new head coach Deshaun Foster, and a crucial road game at USC will be defining moments. The latter, in particular, could have playoff implications if both teams are in contention.
Following a bye, Penn State faces a tough stretch with games at Wisconsin, home against Ohio State, and at Purdue. Night games in West Lafayette and back-to-back road games against Minnesota are potential stumbling blocks. The season ends with a home game against Maryland, which is expected to be one of the weaker Big Ten teams this year.
Ceiling and Floor: Best and Worst-Case Scenarios
If everything clicks, Penn State could finish the regular season at 11-1, with the lone loss likely coming against Ohio State. However, if the wheels fall off, particularly with tough road games at USC and Wisconsin, the Nittany Lions could finish as low as 8-4. A potential loss to Washington is also on the radar, especially if the team struggles to recover emotionally from a hard loss to Ohio State.
The Coaching Factor: James Franklin’s Job Security
While James Franklin has been a stable presence at Penn State, another underwhelming season could lead to calls for change. However, finding a replacement with the same pedigree might be challenging. Matt Rhule, a former Nittany Lion, is often mentioned as a potential candidate, but luring him away from Nebraska seems unlikely given his current success. Luke Fickell at Wisconsin is another name that could surface, but any move would likely face significant resistance.
Penn State enters the 2024 season with high expectations but also significant challenges. The defense will be the key to their success, but the offense, particularly the wide receiver group, needs to step up. With a mix of winnable games and tough matchups, this season could either be a step forward for the Nittany Lions or a year of missed opportunities. All eyes will be on how they handle the pressure, especially in those critical road games.
